Great post, lovelock; I really enjoyed the points of discussion.
I followed the OUYA for awhile before launch and was a bit skeptical it would come to fruition. Now that it seems a reality, I'm naturally curious about being able to make games for it.
One of my major concerns is the same concern I have when considering making games for Android, iPad, or any other mobile market: saturation. There's a concerted voice saying mobile is now and will be the majority player in gaming as we move forward.
To me, that means every major publisher, minor publisher, and garage team is going to jump on board. Without a marketing campaign (and budget), strong design tools, and a sizable fanbase, it's going to be nigh impossible to get noticed on such a platform. I'm reluctant to invest a couple months time and energy into something to have it buried in a deluge of apps, as indie projects often are in those big mobile markets.
The reality, IMO, is that for every indie game that succeeds there are thousands that don't; combine that with a fresh market that will attract everyone and their grandmother, and I'm right back to being a skeptic. Now one can argue that ANY market for indie games is going to be a challenge and I wouldn't disagree, but when a new market opens using a technology based on a mobile platform that is drowning in apps already, it might be tougher than impossible.
But, hey, maybe the OUYA will be that Android-based portal that will prove the difference? All I'd say to anyone considering it is: make sure you want to do it, you're committed, and jump in with both feet. Whatever you make will have to be good; you'll have to promote like crazy; and you'll have to be 100% prepared for 0 returns on your investment.
That's the nature of the digi-beast, right?