I wonder about this quite a bit, too. Is the money I spent on my Personal License going to ever pay for itself? Every time I look at any of the monetization options available, I don't see how it could. Kongregate has a low payout, and so do ads. The only way to see any money in this product is to advertise profusely, and even then, you better hope you have a landing page full of ads on it, because in-game transactions is harder than Klingon Calculus.
However. I saw a commercial for the Surface Pro 4, and realized the era of desktop gaming is not dead, it was merely and briefly eclipsed by the Mobile Gold Rush of 2012, and remained hazy until now.
MY NEW MONETIZATION CONCEPT
1.Create a spectacular game that plays well on a low-end PC. Read 2GB of memory, dual core, 10 on an XP machine so you can even play at Grandma's.
2. Make a demo that can run in a browser.
3. Make a commercial. Create a youtube channel which has weekly updates.
4. Offer DesktopDownload via PayPal.
5. Discreet ads on website, like adwords.
6. Spend $400 on advertising. Your game in other games! On Facebook! Etc!
7. Never stop developing. Never stop updating.