--"I wholeheartedly disagree with the assessment that the Ouya will be a flop."--
yes, I love discussions. They are insightful. I do this not to change your mind, but to only express the ideas and topics about Ouya. I hope they will bring out much thought on the subject :)
--"There is a market for retro games. "--
I agree. However I feel that this strength applies to mostly portable gaming. Some retro games that aren't portable succeed due to a neglected fan base. Mega Man as an example. Ouya is not directed as a retro machine. That's the indie community mostly and I admit that Ouya is aiming for the small business/indie community.
--"Major companies have already signed on to develop games for Ouya or re-release classics. Bandai, Square Enix, Konami, and more"--
This is inappropriate statement. These companies are already working for support for Android OS. Once the game is on the Android the rest only comes down to adjusting for the controller and the resolution. Also I want to express that these companies are notoriously bad for keeping to there intended support. Just ask Nintendo fans. "Company X announces support for the N64/GC/Wii" months down the road "console [nintendo] does not have [feature] and we will not be continuing"
So there you go. Support is for Android and that doesn't mean solid support for the Ouya. It also doesn't mean Ouya/Android will be seeing the companies AAA games, but instead old ports.
--"The Ouya is in the hardware manufacturing business. They will send a console and in 5 to 10 years likely release another if they system does will or die out. "--
ummm. yes/no and somewhere in the middle. Ouya is a platform of hardware and software. We have no idea what kind of machine longevity the Ouya will be based on. let's take into account that the machine will be the cheapest console on the market at $99(US I assume). Most console launch at the 250+ range. Also Ouya as you point out is based on the mobile device technology.
The Tegra started out in 2008 and has four iterations. That's one iteration per year. Mobile devices are keeping up. This year the release of the Tegra 3, so 2013 will Tegra 3 mainstream year and the release of the Tegra 4. We may see a slowdown on the Tegra chips, but it's unlikely as it's a new underdeveloped area.
In five more years the Ouya will be outdated by four chips and the relative power it brings. Mobile devices don't live by console years and the Ouya who's software is based on the mobile developers(ios/android) can't run on the same console life cycle. The ouya is a middle between mobile technology in a console grounds. I don't see good things as games made for Tegra 7 will not run on a Tegra 3.
--"Their development costs will likely be lower than most phone manufacturers."--
I agree with this. I also believe that the $99 is it's greatest strength. This means it's easier to pay the cost of $100 yearly rather than paying 300$ every five+ years. I know it sounds odd, but let me explain. it's easier to pay $10 out of the pocket monthly than it is pay $100 as whole sum. it's just human spending behavior vs budgetary expenses. MMO's make more money at $15 a month rather than 60$ for 6 months. even though the 6 month package is only 10$ a month. It just comes down to budget hits. $15 a month is less noticeable than $60
I feel that this is the Ouya strength. A yearly or bi-yearly console where software upgrades. it's easier to swallow the price than $250+ a year. So hear I agree very much.
--"On top of that you get a high res output for android games. "--
Funny enough... actually no. The "mass" market really doesn't care about HD. As long as the graphics are good by style. WoW used a lower poly count than EQ2. WoW styled towards a colourful fantasy environment where as EQ2 wanted a more real look. And game after game style is way more important. Heck let's be honest. We are using C2 a 2D engine. Even the earlier comment on "retro" gaming backs this up. it's not about HD it's about good games with effective graphical style.
Again. I want Ouya to succeed, but I believe that it's a console bridge which is betting on lofty ideals. I still want one and I hope for the best. But I don't see this product succeeding based on a mass consumer need. Most of it's Kickstarter success really seems to be from the developers community rather than gamers.
I'm not trying to disaude you. I think you brought up some interesting points regarding the Ouya and I would like to hear more and possibly see a counter examination on what I wrote :) and what I may have missed.
PS. I really dislike the editor that scirra used. Most others will handle inserting the tags based when you highlight and tag it. this one inserts the tag at the end of the document :(