If you use google play (25$, forever) or itunes (100$/year), you will need a bit of promotion in nearly all the cases.
google play works better with free+ads, because users buy less. Publishing the game 2 times (free+paid) may be worse because the position in the market is modified with more visits, and if you have 2 apps for the same game, you will divide the visits in 2 apps.
My next game will be free with ads and if i can, i will add IAP for buying the full game and remove ads.